Several months ago, as part of the continuing education program at the office, they began sending out ‘threat identification’ slides that focused on Chinese-made weapon systems. Naturally, I really liked them but as several weeks passed with bi-weekly updates, I had a question that kept stirring in the back of my mind. Outside of direct conflict with China, how likely will our uniformed counterparts encounter Chinese-made weapon systems? Or more simply, how big of a player is China in the weapons export game? So, I fired up the Google machine and this is what I found.
According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies – ChinaPower: (emphasis mine)
“Decades of economic growth coupled with ongoing military modernization campaigns have enabled China to emerge as a major player in the global arms trade. For years, Beijing imported several times more conventional weapons than it sold overseas, but for most of the last decade, China has been a net arms exporter. According to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), China was the fifth largest arms exporter in the world from 2010 to 2020 – behind the United States, Russia, France, and Germany.”
None of this is surprising given the industrial prowess of America’s greatest competitor and how they have replaced so much of the global manufacturing sector. But it was something that I absolutely did not know. The report includes a lot of numbers and a badass map but I think this is the best paragraph on volume:
“Although China has established itself as an arms export leader, the overall value of its trade still pales in comparison to that of the United States and Russia. The US exported a massive 105 billion TIV from 2010 to 2020 – more than six times the Chinese total. Russia exported 70.5 billion TIV, or about four times as much as China.”
But that doesn’t really answer my question of, how likely will our men and women in uniform encounter these products? For that, we have to keep reading and focus on who China is selling to.
“Most of Beijing’s arms exports are sold to countries close to home. Despite low levels of arms exports throughout the mid-1990s and into the mid-2000s, most of what China did export (82.8 percent) was shipped to countries across Asia. This trend has continued as China became increasingly prominent in the global arms trade. A combined 63.4 percent of China’s conventional weapons sales since 2010 found their way to Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Myanmar. Other Asian countries purchased an additional 13.9 percent of Chinese arms.”
In addition, China sells to a relatively wide range of countries in Northern Africa, including Algeria, Tanzania, Nigeria, Morocco, Sudan and others.
While they note some quality issues with the weapons themselves, they are getting refined in the crucible of conflict. The report continues:
“It is worth noting that Chinese weapons have reportedly been used in conflicts across Africa, including in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Côte d’Ivoire, Sudan, and Somalia. In July 2014, China North Industries Corporation delivered 100 guided missile systems, over 9,000 automatic rifles, and 24 million rounds of ammunition to the South Sudanese government, whose actions have been widely criticized by the international community.”
The report is quite good and I highly recommend it, but it is also a bit outdated. So, I tried to find more current information to see how China has fared over the last 4 or so years. For that, we first go to The Economic Times where they report significant quality control problems:
“China’s arms exports have declined by nearly a quarter in the last decade due to poor quality and inconsistent performance. The People’s Liberation Army is plagued by low-quality weapons, causing a decrease in demand for Chinese weaponry. Hidden costs and lack of technological compatibility have further impacted China’s arms exports. While China supplies weapons to over 53 nations, major importers such as Pakistan, Myanmar, and African and Middle Eastern countries have faced issues with Chinese.”
Honestly, this piece feels a like a bit of wish casting, so why not go directly to the source for most of the information the previous two articles were based on, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). (emphasis mine)
“New statistics released by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) reveal that China’s arms exports dropped over the two most recent five year periods. SIPRI data show that arms exports from 2018-2022 dropped by 23 per cent compared with 2013-2017, which could signal military stockpiling by China against the backdrop of geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and along the Line of Actual Control with India.
Latest figures show that China’s overall share of global arms exports slipped from 6.3 per cent to 5.2 per cent during the same period. While China is obviously preparing for a potential invasion of Taiwan, the possibility of it using its defense industrial base to support Russia in Ukraine cannot be ruled out. Indications of this are already present, but could be enhanced if the conflict persists.”
So, in summary, will our men and women in uniform encounter loads of Chinese-made weapons and weapons systems downrange? Outside of direct conflict, maybe. But that does not diminish the importance of studying and ensuring familiarity because, as the highlighted passages above indicate, exports may be down because China has shifted its focus to “stockpiling for a potential invasion of Taiwan.”
Overall, the report is rather negative on the overall outlook of Chinese-made exports noting the quality problems and the ‘lack of combat testing.’ There is one more section of the SIPRI report that I would like to leave you with because this is where the refinement of their weapon systems could really make things difficult for Taiwan and U.S. personnel. It involves China’s role in the Russia-Ukraine conflict:
“Chinese companies have also been supplying civilian drones, to both sides exploiting the gray space between military and civilian purposes. The US-based Centre for Advanced Defense Studies says Chinese companies may be already sending Russia electronic parts for anti-aircraft missile radars.”
It is my belief, at least for the next couple of years, it is the space in the grey zone between peace and conflict that our troops will encounter these weapons, and who knows – if U.S. escorts become a thing in the Sabina Shoal…it might be sooner rather than later!