My morning routine typically consists of getting the kids up, packing lunches, getting them off to school and trying to wind down with a podcast on my way to work. The podcasts vary, but I usually start my day with The President’s Daily Brief. It is a very good daily podcast that is about 30-minutes in length and covers some of the biggest stories of the day. Sometimes, one of their featured stories sparks further investigation, or in this case, reminds me of another podcast that I recently listened to, which can, in turn, send me spiraling down a rabbit hole. So, without further delay, let’s jump in!
You can listen to the episode below, go to the show’s page here or listen to it on any of your favorite sources for podcasting.
Our focus is going to be on the expansion of Russian intelligence operations south of the border in Mexico. Here are some key quotes:
“Russia’s intelligence operations are expanding with U.S. officials increasingly alarmed by Moscow’s growing activity south of the border…This build up is seen as an effort to target the U.S. while undermining Washington’s support for Ukraine.”
Mike Baker continues:
“Moscow’s interest in Mexico is not new…high profile espionage cases…underscore Mexico as a hub for covert Russian operations…The largest portion of GRU members in the world is in Mexico right now. These intelligence personnel are closely monitoring opportunities to influence U.S. operations…”
It is pretty much undeniable that Russia, China and others have taken advantage of our distraction the last 20+ years fighting the war on terror and our neglect of the Global South. Regardless, you really should listen to the whole episode… Anyway, this segment reminded me of a recent School of War Podcast, where Aaron MacLean interviews Joshua S. Treviño, who is the:
“Chief of Intelligence and Research and the Director for Texas Identity at the Texas Public Policy Foundation, joins the show to talk about the crisis on the U.S. southern border.”
MacLean and Treviño approach the ‘problem’ of Mexico from a completely different angle that is not centered on illegal immigration but on the bigger picture of how the violence in Mexico will most likely spill over into the U.S. more similar to the early 1900’s.
We tweeted about the episode here:
This is an excellent episode and the topic of a lot of conversation in the office @schoolofwarpod “Mexico is an antagonist to the US…and is governed by a state-cartel synthesis that is at odds with the US.” https://t.co/Fj2TQqozzT
— Cognitive Warrior Project (@CognitiveWarri2) September 11, 2024
(Unambiguous plug: if you are not following us on X, you should. We share a lot of content that we do not have the time to write about here and X is one of our primary sources for information.)
In short it is their belief that:
“Mexico is an antagonist to the US…and is governed by a state-cartel synthesis that is at odds with the US.”…
Here is my favorite quote from the episode that defines what a cartel is and highlights the problem this creates not only for the U.S. but in Mexico writ large:
What is a cartel? – “A quasi state organization that exercise characteristics of sovereignty, sometimes in cooperation with, sometimes against, but always external to the formal state.”
And one more for good measure on foreign influence just south of our border. (emphasis mine)
“On the PRC Policy of Strategic Diversion “extra-hemispheric powers are stepping into Mexico…a platform to be leveraged against the US…”
This podcast is a highly recommend and I think it is one of School of War’s best. It was the topic of a lot of conversation around the office! Also, if you are not a regular listener of School of War, you should be. They are my current favorite, I do not miss an episode.
These two podcasts were enough to write an article, and then I stumbled on this recent 60 Minutes episode where they note the U.S. is in the middle of the worst drug epidemic in America’s history where more that 70,000 people were killed last year. It is the scourge of our time and I believe can only be compared to another time in history, The Opium Wars in China. It should be noted that China remembers the Opium Wars as one of the darkest periods of their long history.
This episode reminds me of the article that started it all here at The Cognitive Warrior Project, that we published more than 4 years ago! Here is the key excerpt:
Several months ago, I listened to a Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) Program by NSI titled: The Opioid Crisis: China, National Security, and the Undeclared Conflict. It’s about 30 minutes and discusses non-kinetic warfare and the whole of nation response but the key points are:
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- China is engaged in warfare with us by applying Sun Tzu’s principles
- All warfare’s is based on deception
- The victorious warrior wins first then goes to war, while the defeated warrior goes to war first then seeks to win
- 4 of the 9 elements of the 100-year war
- Induce complacency to avoid alerting your opponent
- Be patient for decades or longer to achieve victory
- Steal your opponent’s ideas and technology for strategic purposes
- Military might is not the critical factor for winning a long term competition.
- We are engaged in non-kinetic war with China that costs the US more than the DoDs budget!
- War disguised as peace – Left of Bang
- Military’s Role – Border Enforcement / Drug Interdiction
- Is this a worthy mission for the Military – Yes
- Non-kinetic warfare can be more destabilizing than a direct conflict
- What is a proportional response?
- Weapons of mass disruption – read that again, not a typo
- The larger border mission and involvement of the Military
- What is the impact of not using the Military to help secure the border?
- China is engaged in warfare with us by applying Sun Tzu’s principles
And this doesn’t even take into account the featured image at the top of the page borrowed from the article Mexico Is Growing as New China Hub; 2024 Exports Already Breaking Records. Ultimately, I have questions. Is there trouble brewing south of the border? How important is Mexico to our national security and are we paying enough attention? The answer seems pretty clear to me, yes there is trouble, Mexico is going to be very important, and no, we are not paying close enough attention. What do you think?