Tuesday Terror Update: ISIS vs. Al Qaeda

Man, the rabbit hole is deep. Yesterday I intended on getting an article out about tourniquets but got completely derailed reading about hemorrhage control. That plus homeschool and my actual job…maybe next week.

For our Tuesday Terror update we are going back to the well to look at three Podcasts with the Long War Journal’s Thomas Joscelyn & Bill Roggio. John Batchelor interviews them weekly for his show on Monday evening and the podcast drops in the morning. Typically, they are divided in two parts.

The first portion is about 12 minutes and can be found here: https://audioboom.com/posts/7567519-who-was-mullah-omar-and-why-is-the-taliban-praising-him-now-thomasjoscelyn-billroggio-fdd

• The podcast starts out discussing Bill Roggio’s piece where the Taliban lauds Mullah Omar for defending Osama bin Laden after 9/11.
• They ask the question who was Mullah Omar…the founder and first emir of the Taliban. They worked in a reference to A Weekend with Burnie’s and how the Taliban hid Omar’s death for almost two years.
• Omar is still very much the ideological foundation of the Taliban. He and his followers vowed to fight the death and eject the U.S. from Afghanistan and recreate the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.
• Roggio believes the Taliban is flaunting their relationship with Bin Laden and Al Qaeda while we are trying to negotiate a peace deal.
• Batchelor asks if they still praise the 9-11 attack, this time they do not, but typically in the past they do. They continue to state the we deserved the 9-11 attack.
• The Taliban is clear about their statements, praising Bin Laden and not just being good hosts, by giving them a place to operate.
• Thomas Joscelyn comes in to discuss the a UN report: UN finds ‘disturbing increase in violence’ following U.S.-Taliban deal.
• They continue to state that this is a withdrawal agreement and not a peace deal in which the Taliban continues to hollow out the Afghan security forces. They accomplish the ‘hollowing out’ by delegitimizing the Afghan government by not talking to them. The Taliban considers the current government illegitimate and a puppet to the U.S. In addition, they are also continuing their attacks on Afghan Security forces.
• They discuss Ashraf Ghani the current president of Afghanistan and the prospects for the Taliban to actually lay down their arms. Ghani, continues to seek a cease fire and the Taliban has continued to refuse.
• All of the Taliban’s media is produced the Manba al-Jihad, the Haqqani Network’s media shop. Joscelyn and Roggio continue to state that there is no evidence that Haqqani network, which is an integral part of the Taliban, is breaking from Al Qaeda. (You can read more about the Haqqani Network here.)

Part two is about eight minutes and they discuss The Wheel of Jihad, last week’s Generation Jihad podcast that we discussed here:

https://audioboom.com/posts/7567523-the-wheel-of-jihad-pakistan-sponsors-the-afghanistan-taliban-that-allies-with-the-pakistan-talib?playlist_direction=forward

• They discuss the Hezbollah Network in Iraq and how the Pakistani Taliban works with the Afghanistan Taliban and presumably Al Qaeda.
• Bill Roggio offers an overview of the S. offers $10 million reward for Hezbollah’s commander in Iraq and their funding and training of the Shia militias and the power they hold / potential impact on the next prime minister which we discussed here.
• They then discuss the resurgence of ISIS in western Iraq and how the insurgency is getting worse according to ISIS social media claims.
• They cover in some dept the Pakistani and Afghan Taliban working together and the ties between them.
• And finally go over the Wheel of Jihad and the Pakistani Government support and influence and how they will continue to support the Taliban.

Both podcasts are well the listen if you want a quick overview of the current state of terror. If you want to go more in-depth:

• Also at the Long War Journal Thomas Joscelyn & Bill Roggio, drop their latest Podcast Generation Jihad Ep. 7 – Jihad in the Time of Coronavirus. Again, the podcast drops every Tuesday morning, it’s about an hour, but is well worth the listen. They describe the concept of the podcast as:

“Take a look around the globe today and you’ll see jihadists fighting everywhere from West Africa to Southeast Asia. They aren’t the dominant force in all of those areas, or even most of them. But jihadism has mushroomed into a worldwide movement, with al-Qaeda, the Taliban, ISIS and other groups waging guerrilla warfare and launching terrorist attacks on a regular basis.

Each week Generation Jihad brings you a new story focusing on jihadism around the globe. These stories will focus not only on Sunni jihadism, but also Shiite extremist groups. We will also host guests who can provide their own unique perspectives on current events.”

• In their latest episode:

Daveed Gartenstein-Ross joins hosts Bill Roggio and Tom Joscelyn to discuss how jihadists are adapting to the coronavirus pandemic. The three colleagues discuss their years working in the counterterrorism field and how some erroneous ideas just won’t die. They also offer some advice for new analysts entering the field. 

• Daveed Gartenstein-Ross is the author of My Year Inside Radical Islam: A Memoir, and other publications.
• First, they explore how Jihadist groups will or are reacting toward the pandemic. Are there opportunities and challenges? They following are 3 ways they are trying to capitalize:

1. 1. Narrative
   2. Opportunities
   3. Governance

• The Taliban is one of the leaders in trying to demonstrate the ability to govern through this. They are producing propaganda to de-legitimize the Afghan Government.
• The narrative for the coronavirus is God’s punishment. Used Sadr as an example, called him Mullah Atari – not the brightest of the Sadr clan.
• Jihadist consistency – Application of theological justification most inconsistent is applying current events to ideology.
• Key to understanding messaging is watching actions and where it matches their words. The Taliban publishes in English. Voice of Jihad.
• Jihadis could exploit the coronavirus:

1. 1. Prison Breaks (big part of ISIS regeneration),
   2. Claim an Anti-muslim sentiment
   3. Messaging
   4. Reduce the appetite for deployments
   5. Global Terrorism statistics say numbers are down but they have a theory it is a classification problem due to terror / insurgency classification.

• They discuss the failed German attack and understand that if they were successful in an attack on during the pandemic it would create a lot more stress on U.S. Government forcing people to ask why we are there?
• They have a long discussion about analysts that includes a tendency for some to ‘disconnect the dots’ in an effort to fit a particular narrative.
• Some problems in the field of analysis. The field is way to personal and second, it’s not self-correcting in errors. Analysts rarely admit mistakes and sometimes are victims to circular reporting where the same information moves around in a circle to justify itself. Sometimes, hyperbole and overstatement are taken literally. In addition, some documents are taken out of context.
• Advice to young analysts not to repeat errors of past,

1. 1. Work from primary sources of literature (secondary literature often wrong)
   2. Ignore personalities,
   3. The most prominent pieces of analysis should be challenged the most
   4. Secret sources are not always better than open sources
   5. Match statements to what is happening on the ground.
   6. Make it measurable
   7. Have a mosaic view (put the pieces together)

• Discussed which terror group currently better positioned, ISIS or Al Qaeda, UN view and Long War Journal’s view is that Al Qaeda is stronger and better positioned. ISIS higher in terror attacks. Historical view was that ISIS near focused and Al Qaeda far focused…now its flipped. Al Qaeda is moving toward something resembling a Caliphate which has always been their goal. ISIS southeast Asia is the other major center of gravity outside of Syria.
• Think Al Qaeda the stronger organization and is being under estimated as a global organization. The split has allowed Al Qaeda to operate in the shadows because ISIS acts as a lightning rod.
• The coronavirus will allow Al Qaeda to further fly below the counterterrorism radar.

Overall, all three were a very informative set of podcasts, especially if you are an analyst and are trying to avoid pitfalls. I recommend heading over and giving them a listen to see if you agree with my notes, they are the primary source after all!  

If I could ask them a couple questions about this podcast, they would include:

What they thought would happen between the two groups if the U.S. was not involved? Do they see a Jihadi civil war? If we got out of the way, could that actually benefit our cause by no longer be able to be blamed for their problems? What do you think? What would you ask them?