Well my Tuesday terror update got moved to Wednesday. The Generation Jihad podcast is a MUST listen if you care at all about the fight against the Islamic State. I basically listened to all 85 minutes twice! Listen to the podcast, watch the Frontline piece that we discussed here and read the foundational document.
Only two Podcasts for our Tuesday Terror update again both with the Long War Journal’s Thomas Joscelyn & Bill Roggio although Bill has the night off during the John Batchelor Show.
John Batchelor interviews them weekly for his show on Monday evening and the podcast posts in the morning. This morning there is only one John Batchelor podcast but an interesting aside is the picture he chose for the display. It is an 1890s photo of Lahore, Pakistan of a time before modern terrorism as we know it. The picture is described as follows:
A street scene in British colonial Lahore — taken in the old city section during the 1890s (c. 1895).This photograph is a view of the facades of houses, with ornate wooden Mashrabiya balconies projecting out, and shop awnings below, over and along a long narrow street in old Lahore. It captures people in motion, including in a horse-drawn cab in the foreground. Photograph, taken by an unknown photographer, is from the Macnabb Collection, British Library. HistoryThe city of Lahore is situated on the Ravi River, where it meets the “Afghanistan to Bengal Road”.It rose to prominence under the Mughal Empire — after Babur (ruled 1526-1530) defeated Ibrahim Lodi, a Sultan of Delhi, in 1526. It became the capital city of Emperor Akbar (ruled 1556-1605) from 1584 to 1598. Akbar rebuilt the fort and enclosed the city within a high defensive wall set with 12 gates. Under the rule of Ranjit Singh (1780-1839), the famous Sikh leader, it became the capital of Punjab (pre-modern Pakistan) from 1799 to 1839. It grew into a significant Bengali city in colonial British India. Lahore’ reputation as a “City of Gardens” is from the Mughal gardens in prominenance here. The are of sophistcated interpretaions of Islamic Paradise Gardens, with garden designs on a grand scale having exquisite detailing of landscape elements and features, in materials, scale, and artisanship. The Mughal architectural legacy in Lahore includes the fort, and various palaces and tombs.
Date | 1895
Source | British Library
Author | British Library (Author Unknown)
In this podcast they discuss how ISIS is preaching against an ‘impure’ Taliban. Let me just go get some popcorn to watch them fight it out. The podcast can be found here.
- The podcast starts out discussing Thomas Joscelyn’s piece: Analysis: The Islamic State’s ideological campaign against al-Qaeda.
- Tom Joscelyn discusses a video of ISIS’s ‘purist’ criticism of the Taliban. The critique the Taliban’s negotiation with the U.S. and historically Russia.
- Despite all of the alleged defects (promising not to attack the U.S. recognizing the UN Charter) withing the Taliban, Al Qaeda still supports them. This is a pollical play by ISIS for Islamic purity.
- How strong is ISIS in Afghanistan? Joscelyn believes that the Taliban is much stronger than ISIS and has been depleted. He still sees the Taliban as the biggest threat to the Afghan Government.
- They also provide a very quick recap of last week’s Generation Jihad Ep. 7 – Jihad in the Time of Coronavirus podcast that we discussed in more detail here. The following are several ways Jihadists could exploit the coronavirus.
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- Prison Breaks (big part of ISIS regeneration),
- Claim an Anti-muslim sentiment
- Messaging
- Reduce the appetite for deployments
- Global Terrorism statistics say numbers are down but they have a theory it is a classification problem due to terror / insurgency classification.
We will also discuss the Long War Journal’s Thomas Joscelyn & Bill Roggio, latest Podcast Generation Jihad Ep. 8 – The Islamic State’s Foundational Texts. Again, the podcast posts every Tuesday morning, it’s about an hour and a half, but is well worth the listen. Honestly, if you want to study ISIS at all, this is one for you! They describe the concept of the podcast as:
“Take a look around the globe today and you’ll see jihadists fighting everywhere from West Africa to Southeast Asia. They aren’t the dominant force in all of those areas, or even most of them. But jihadism has mushroomed into a worldwide movement, with al-Qaeda, the Taliban, ISIS and other groups waging guerrilla warfare and launching terrorist attacks on a regular basis.
Each week Generation Jihad brings you a new story focusing on jihadism around the globe. These stories will focus not only on Sunni jihadism, but also Shiite extremist groups. We will also host guests who can provide their own unique perspectives on current events.”
- In their latest episode:
Craig Whiteside joins hosts Bill Roggio and Tom Joscelyn to discuss his new book, The ISIS Reader: Milestone Texts of the Islamic State Movement. Coauthored with Haroro Ingram and Charlie Winter, the book reviews key texts in the evolution of the would-be caliphate. Craig and Bill discuss their time in Iraq, including how they witnessed the earliest days of ISIS.
Dr. Craig Whiteside is an associate professor of National Security Affairs at the U.S. Naval War College as part of the resident program, Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California. He is a senior associate with NWC’s Center on Irregular Warfare and Armed Groups and a fellow at the International Centre for Counter-terrorism – The Hague’s and the George Washington University’s program on extremism. He is a co-author of “The ISIS Reader” (Hurst/Oxford-2019). He holds a doctorate in political science from Washington State University and is a former U.S. Army officer.
The following are my notes taken the best that I could.
- Joscelyn and Roggio discuss the importance of studying the foundational documents of ISIS if you really want to understand the organization. They are crucial for an accurate picture of who / what they are.
- They spend a bit of time covering common group and where they deployed / worked as embedded reporters circa 2006-2008 and covering which insurgent groups were operational in their areas.
- Call the abandonment of the awakening the biggest missed story when the U.S. suddenly pulled out. Pose the question, would ISIS have even came to be if we stayed?
- Early Islamic State documents show they knew what they did wrong with tribes in the west and why they turned away. The counter strategy to fix what they did.
- Discuss resiliency of insurgency, beyond mere survival. Why? Key factors: Ideology, Pragmatic (adaptive / self-reflective) and Good at Making Money.
- What is the role of former Baathists? Joscelyn thinks this is over played but some were involved in Saddam’s network and Whiteside agrees. It’s too simplistic, much more complex, the ones they had were selected on ‘merit’. Being an Islamist was more important. No Baathists are in the top 5 of most important.
- What is their obsession with killing Shia civilians? Was it pre-existing ‘currency’ they were playing off? There was not a personal animus against the Shia but they were always focused on the end game of creating the Caliphate was to get the Shia gone. Just too many Shia and used provocation to make the Government and Shia groups to overreact. There was a fear on both sides.
- Zarqawi described the Shia as the insurmountable obstacle and the looming danger after the Americans leave. That was always going to be the real fight because the Sunni were outnumbered.
- Why did Zarqawi use suicide bombs? Early they were not claiming any attacks and was trying to build media organization first. There was some hesitancy to announce they were starting their own group. Al Qaeda was always reluctant accepting them as an affiliate and there were discussions about leadership as early as 2005. Zarqawi has a better understanding of the conditions on the ground.
- Talk about the importance of reading and reviewing the founding documents to understand what they mean. Understanding the enemy and making connections earlier. The Islamic state talked of remaining in 2007.
- Insurgency doctrine (Jihadis) and the abandonment of the counterinsurgency…erratic policy decisions. Note, that the U.S. fights wars on a political timetable. The original Petraeus plan was until 2020! Jihadist timetable are decades long. Need to think long and hard about a counterinsurgency prior because it was working but have to stay the course.
- Believe most have a fundamental misunderstanding of who / how THEY are fighting. They continue to evolve and learn a lot from their (jihadis) failures. For them, they understood this is political warfare and a coalition of different disaffected groups. – the Fallujah memorandum is a political document.
- Talked the failure of politics when there was counterinsurgency success. Politics = Counterinsurgency…Politics > Counterinsurgency > Military
- Very bleak vision of Afghanistan. All evidence shows the Taliban is trying to create an Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. Must match their actual words to action not interpretation to get actual intent.
- Consistency of Islamic State…we are not negotiating with the existing government. Taliban is lead by the Emir of the Faithful not the Emir of a tribe.
- What do you see for the future of Iraq and the Islamic State? Whiteside sees that defeats and victories are temporary. But the Islamic State has problems because they suffered both political and military defeats because they burned a lot of bridges. Boxed themselves in against Al Qaeda.
- Abu Baker al Baghdadi was more pragmatic and was actually less radical than others, must watch out for tactical cooperation between groups.
- The dysfunction of the current Iraqi government will be key indicator if ISIS makes a comeback.
- Also watch for other groups, African, to maintain allegiance. Al Qaeda actually warned, don’t start a caliphate unless you can defend it. How committed is Iran?
- You can win a counterinsurgency with brutal tactics. The Russians have proven it twice. Our model is more difficult.
- Management of Savagery, no one has done an insurgency like the Islamic State. They have a very patient model.
- Talked Haditha raid in 2012. Islamic State of Iraq conducted a very brutal effective raid where they foreshadowed their capabilities. The Iraqi government made this possible through their dysfunction. For the future, watch who supports who. If the Sunni tribes oppose the leading candidate look out.
- The Battle of Donkey Island and ISIS Special Operations, they all included propaganda. They show extreme tactical patience with some of their propaganda and Baghdadi waited two years for first real speech.
- The Islamic State has displayed very good planning and execution in a lot of missions.
- Lament a lack of general education and understanding among the forces.
- They tried to figure out reconciliation and execution for Sunnis that don’t support.
- What do they think about the new ISIS leader? Don’t know much about him. How to they do and understand leadership succession. They are religious scholars that understand the requirements, even though we don’t know much about him but they will make the case. Culturally we don’t understand the importance of lineage.
That was really good. I cannot more highly recommend actually listening to it for yourself. Please don’t just rely on my notes. Use my notes to guide your thoughts while you listen. This was so good. If I missed something important, please let us all know in the comments.