Have you ever read a headline to an article that infuriated you so much that you had to read it or couldn’t stop thinking about it once you did? Trust me, it happens A LOT here when you go to as many different sites as I do. Most of the time I can get over it and move on, but I am having some difficulty this morning. This morning’s angst is being driven by this headline: Opinion: US withdrawal from Afghanistan and Iraq is irresponsible from DW. The headline itself isn’t that infuriating but just perturbing enough to get me to click the link then I read this line (emphasis mine):
Donald Trump’s plan to reduce US troops in Afghanistan and Iraq to 2,500 each by mid-January is a slap in the face of US allies and strengthens extremism.
Where is my red-faced mad emoji? This line just infuriates me. So, I did some research and looked up the total troop contributions by country to Afghanistan and no other country has more than 1000 troops stationed there! NATO and 38 other countries are contributing just under half of all of the troops currently stationed there and I couldn’t even find an official number for NATO troops in Iraq other than this (emphasis mine):
In January 2017, NATO deployed a modest but scalable Core Team to Baghdad of eight civilian and military personnel, setting up NATO’s permanent presence in Iraq.
NATO Troop Levels June 2020. Image obtained from: https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2020/6/pdf/2020-06-RSM-Placemat.pdf
The article continues:
The hope that the erratic and selfish Trump administration would come to an end after Joe Biden’s clear election win was quashed once again. Current President Donald Trump will hold the reins of power for nine more weeks — and he is willing to use that power until the very last minute…
This hasty and irresponsible decision will have major ramifications for the people of Iraq and Afghanistan, who should be considered in any measures taken.
So, it is selfish and irresponsible for the U.S. to want to bring some of our troops home?
If you Google NATO troops in Afghanistan, you will see plenty of other articles saying very similar things. Are there potential problems that could arise from a troop draw down not withdrawal? (In my original writing of this I used the authors verbiage of withdrawal not draw down which more accurately reflects what is happening) Yes, and I don’t think anyone would deny that. But before we highlight a few of the issues that could arise from the decision what is actually being proposed:
His latest announcement to reduce US troops in Afghanistan from an estimated 4,500 to 2,500, and in Iraq from 3,000 to 2,500 is a case in point. The withdrawal is scheduled to be completed by January 15 — just five days before handing over the presidency to Biden.
500 troops in Iraq and 2,000 in Afghanistan is causing all of this hand wringing?! But seriously, what problems could be created by this draw down? The author continues :
…the presence of US troops does provide a certain degree of predictability. In Afghanistan, they allow negotiators to pressure the Taliban in the ongoing peace talks. Should US troops now start to withdraw in a somewhat disorganized fashion, radical forces are likely to be strengthened…
This is definitely a true statement and I don’t think anyone disagrees. The Taliban will probably be bolstered by this decision. But they currently are making gains in relation to the Afghan government with the current levels anyway and the author concedes that fact (emphasis mine):
The decades-long wars have left both countries with deep scars. Neither Iraq nor Afghanistan have managed to establish stable governments and institutions capable of protecting their citizens from violence. The current situation is, without a doubt, utterly unsatisfactory in many ways.
See this map produced by the Long War Journal:
Taliban Control in Afghanistan. Image obtained from: https://www.longwarjournal.org/mapping-taliban-control-in-afghanistan
Oh yeah, we have already tried two different surges there. One under Obama and shortly after Trump came to office. The author’s critique of Iraq continues this way:
In Iraq, we have seen how a similar move played into the hands of the so-called “Islamic State” (IS). Syria, too, is proof that the ensuing power vacuum is likely to be filled with those who only pursue their own interests.
But is it similar? In Iraq at that time, the Maliki government was actively fomenting sectarian divisions which is not anything like the government currently in place. The Iraqi government is considering giving Sunni regions some level of autonomy and we wrote about that here. In addition, and let me repeat this, this is a draw down not a withdrawal that Biden himself oversaw and we are only talking about 500 troops there!
So, what is the real problem of a U.S. troop draw down? For that we will go to The Washington Post (emphasis mine):
Although the military alliance has about 12,000 troops from 38 countries in Afghanistan, it is reliant on U.S. personnel and infrastructure. The expectation at NATO is that if the United States pulls out, everyone else will also, given the importance of U.S. logistical capabilities in Afghanistan.
So, let me ask the author of this opinion piece and all of the others that have been written the last 2 days – Who was being selfish and irresponsible by not having these logistics capabilities themselves?